The Thought Refuse

A Virtual Repository for the Mind

Redskins Lose; Obama Wins?

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Since 1936 when the Washington Redskins were known as the Boston Braves, this franchise was been the predictor for the winner of the Presidential election.  Every time the Redskins won their last home game before a Presidential election, the incumbent party retained the White House, while a home lose was a predictor that the incumbent party would lose.

This streak kept up from 1936 till 2004 where the Redskins lost 28-14 to the Packers, but George W. Bush and the Republican party won a second term.  But for that one exception, the Washington Redskins seem to know something we don’t.  Last night, on Monday Night Football, the Redskins were routed by the Pittsburgh Steelers 23-6, and given the overwhelming historical evidence, can we say that Barack Obama will triumph at the polls today and unseat the incumbent Republican party and John McCain?  Sporting a 94.4% accuracy rate in 17 Presidential elections, the Redskins are hard to argue with.

(Note: Correlation is often mistaken for causation due to our tendency to “connect the dots” across history.  We need a narrative to understand the random, non-linear nature of our world, and one of the side effects is mistaking correlation for causation – in this case, more specifically, confusing coincidence for prognostication.)

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Written by huxbux

November 4, 2008 at 12:06 pm

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