The Thought Refuse

A Virtual Repository for the Mind

McCain’s Perfect Storm

with 5 comments

Prior to the collapse of Wall Street that began on September 15th, John McCain held a 2% point lead over Barack Obama according to a Gallup Poll.  A lead McCain has held to varying degrees following the Republic National Convention.  McCain’s convention bump was considerable and noted by a Gallup study:

While the increased vote share a candidate receives following his convention usually diminishes, candidates who lead after the second convention usually remain the leader a month after the convention. This is based on a review of historical Gallup data since 1964 — the first year for which Gallup could reliably measure convention bounces. The only possible exception to this general pattern occurred in 1980, when Jimmy Carter had a slim one-point advantage after the Democratic National Convention but he and Ronald Reagan were exactly tied one month after Carter was nominated for a second term.

However, following the market collapse the opinion polls began to take a turn.  This can be directly attributed to McCain’s handling following the stock market fallout.  Most are familiar with McCain’s perceived gaffe at proclaiming that the fundamentals of our economy are strong.” While not a technical error, it was a lingual mistake that resonated to the public that McCain is a man out of touch with what was transpiring.  McCain was also lambasted by the media for at first criticizing the bailout package presented by Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson in a speech, and then later saying he supported the package in a 60 minutes interview.

Considering McCain’s comments in total, he doesn’t come off as indecisive or clueless.  But in the political arena, where soundbites and snippets are king, McCain commited a serious err.  The combination of an economic collapse coupled with the political mishandling on McCain’s part may very well thrust Obama into the White House.  According to an ABC poll, American’s have considerably more faith in Obama’s ability to handle the economy then McCain.  In conjunction with the economy now the most important topic to voters, the economic fall out is shaping up to the perfect storm for McCain, and the sole reason we may be electing Barack Obama into office come November.

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Written by huxbux

September 24, 2008 at 10:56 pm

5 Responses

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  1. Dead on !!! We love it …

    From the S.M.F.S. Crew

    http://www.simplemath.info

    simplemathfinancialsolutions

    September 24, 2008 at 11:21 pm

  2. I saw an interesting poll today of Democrats who do not support Barack Obama. They rank McCain as better on economics than Obama by a 30% margin. Unfortunately, I read so much in the political arena, that I cannot recall whose poll it was!

    Political Republican Opinion

    September 24, 2008 at 11:26 pm

  3. I looked around trying to find that particular poll, but if I look at any more numbers today my head might explode. All I could find was a poll indicating McCain’s increased support by Independents and Democrats following his convention.

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/110137/McCain-Now-Winning-Majority-Independents.aspx

    His strongest support from Democrats was among Conservative Democrats. It would make sense that a majority of them would favor McCain on economic policy issues.

    Thanks for the comment.

    huxbux

    September 25, 2008 at 12:43 am

  4. Looks like the Republican base is in full get out the vote mode now. See my post on the shortages of McCain-Palin signs – http://atimetochoose.wordpress.com/2008/09/29/special-report-the-press-wont-report/)

    Polls will not catch this and I think (unless a major economic event occurs soon) McCaina and Republicans will fare much better than anticipated by the media.

    This smells of a rope-a-dope by Bush. He runs out and proposes a socialist program. Democrats run out to take credit, and Americans reject the idea. The House Republicans are “blamed” by Democrats.

    Bush just tricked Democrats into making Obama’s election a Bush term #3.

    Russ Goldstein

    September 29, 2008 at 4:17 pm

  5. @ Russ

    Thanks for the comment.

    It’s a sobering disappointment for me that the state of the economy and the attempts to address it’s dismal standing is being turned into the blame game.

    huxbux

    September 29, 2008 at 4:43 pm


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